Wednesday, April 06, 2016

Bracketology: How Crazy Season Projects Right Now - from Lacrosse Magazine

I am a huge NCAA Basketball fan, and I love the game of basketball generally, though, since Jordan retired (the 2nd time) from the Bulls, I have not been able to muster my attention for the NBA.  I do love the game, however, and just wished I had begun playing it earlier.  The years I played in High School were fun, even if my vertical leap, at it's height, was about 2.78 inches.

As much as I love basketball, lacrosse is a real passion for me, and with the conclusion of the NCAA season of hoops, it is time to focus fully on lacrosse.  So, do take a look at early bracketology for the Lacrosse NCAA Tournament!

This is from Lacrosse Magazine:

Bracketology: How Crazy Season Projects Right Now


Not only is North Carolina on the outside looking in right now, the Tar Heels aren't even in Patrick Stevens' first four out. (John Strohsacker)
Not only is North Carolina on the outside looking in right now, the Tar Heels aren't even in Patrick Stevens' first four out. (John Strohsacker)

Bracketology: How Crazy Season Projects Right Now

by Patrick Stevens | LaxMagazine.com | Twitter
It's early.
Yes, it's actually a bit past the midpoint of the season, but that's still early  and it's worth remembering that a whole lot is going to change over the next month. Conference races will crystallize and the data the NCAA's lacrosse committee uses to determine the 18-team field will stabilize (some, anyway).
It's important to reinforce this before digging into the current data for the first time because, well, the data is wacky. Some of this is a function of RPI (a relatively unsophisticated metric) being dramatically less useful when each team only has nine or so games (give or take) to plug into it.
And some of it relates to the fact that unlike nearly any year in the last decade, the ACC is down and far from a sure thing to gobble up a chunk of the at-large field.
It's worth stressing again — it's early. But for now, this is a best guess at how things might look if the committee was forced to render a verdict today.

Automatic Qualifiers (10)

RPISOST5T10T2025+Ls
Maryland120-21-22-2
Brown2180-02-12-1
Notre Dame3141-11-13-1
Denver5251-01-04-1
Albany6120-11-12-2
Navy8280-00-02-2
Bryant9290-10-10-2Drexel (33)
Towson15540-00-00-1
Air Force20380-10-20-2
Quinnipiac31460-10-10-2Fairfield (30)

John Tillman understands how to construct a schedule, and Maryland will benefit. The Terrapins have played only two sub-.500 teams outside of league play (Drexel and Princeton), and both of those are midpack in the RPI. ... Yeah, Brown lost to Bryant, but it wasn't an RPI-buster for the Bears based on the LaxPower RPI replica.
Notre Dame owns a top-10 victory (over Maryland), as much as the rest of the ACC combined. The league isn't going to be able to prop up everyone's RPI and schedule strength numbers as well this year (though the absence of truly awful teams still helps considerably). ... Denver owns the most top-20 victories of anyone, and upcoming games against Villanova and Marquette could provide some more schedule strength oomph.
Look at Albany, doing just fine in the post-Lyle Thompson era. Scott Marr is another shrewd scheduler, and the Great Danes will benefit with an April game against Yale. Everything else Albany does prior to the league tournament will be of little help. ... Navy keeps chugging along and controls its fate for locking up home field in the Patriot League tournament.
The four preliminary round games feature the automatic qualifiers with the four lowest RPIs. At the moment, that would include Bryant even after it knocked off Brown. ... Same goes for Towson, which isn't getting nearly as much mileage from defeats of Georgetown and Ohio State as it would have guessed it would.
If Air Force wins the Southern and Denver is a top-two seed, it's safe to assume the Falcons will be in a play-in game funneled into a trip to the defending national champs. ... Quinnipiac has the best RPI in the Metro Atlantic by a considerable margin; Marist is No. 45. That's the one league all but assured of a midweek date prior to the first round.

At-Large Field (8 slots available)

RPISOST5   T10T2025+ Ls
Yale4261-02-03-0
Villanova740-10-13-3Harvard (28)
Stony Brook10420-10-20-2
Marquette11360-01-01-0Ohio St. (32)
Johns Hopkins1270-01-03-1UNC (26)
Penn State13171-01-11-2
Syracuse14180-11-12-2
Virginia1650-10-12-2Cornell (29)
Bucknell17240-01-22-2Colgate (47)
Boston U.18330-01-01-1Lehigh (36), Hartford (39)
Penn1960-20-31-4
High Point21200-10-11-3Richmond (27)
Loyola22210-00-13-2
Duke2380-10-11-2UNC (26), Richmond (27), Harvard (28)
Rutgers25530-00-11-1Princeton (34)
North Carolina26230-20-21-2Hofstra (43)
Richmond27370-00-00-2UNC (26)
Harvard2830-11-31-5

Even if the schedule strength isn't great, Yale has a decent claim to the top seed. Of course, the data is so incomplete you can credibly argue Denver, Maryland and Notre Dame for that spot, too. ...Villanova's awful week doesn't change its attractive computer numbers or its three top-20 victories.
So Stony Brook has a top-10 RPI, but a poor schedule strength and no notable triumphs. That won't get it done long term, even if the Seawolves probably are one of the country's 15 best teams in reality. ... Marquette's in the conversation, but how it does the rest of the way (with Notre Dame, Denver and even Duke still to come) will determine whether it makes its postseason debut this year.
Johns Hopkins is rooting hard for Navy and Towson to keep on rolling. Those victories are key differentiators for the Blue Jays. ... Penn State hasn't really messed up, and bagging the victory over Denver has the potential to pay off considerably if the Nittany Lions can achieve any consistency.
Syracuse and Virginia, two ACC teams that would be wise to collect some victories this month. Both get shots at North Carolina in the next two weekends. ... 

Read the whole article HERE

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